Opposition in Russia: not the Ghost of a Chance

Opposition is an organized group of persons that are united to oppose a government.

          

Efficiency of any oppositional organization is determined by successfulness of its only possible primary objective achieving – coming to a power in a democratic way to realize its own political program.

          

We can estimate efficiency of any oppositional organization by using three indicators. First, it is the level of public support of an organization. If public support is absent, it is convenient to explain such fact by counteraction of “a bloody regime”. Many leaders of current Russian opposition mask their unpopularity in such way especially in front of their sponsors abroad. Organizations headed by these people have the only possible objective - just to recept a next grant from an international NGO. Russian oppositional organizations habitually mislead foreign grantors by submitting falce reports about uncompromising activity in the area of freedom distribution and human rights protection. Such quasioppositional organizations consist of several tens of persons at best and are usually headed by public figures and former officials of 1990th years or even by inveterate liberals which are named by the people of Russia as “demschiza” (it means “democratic schizophrenic”). Their total approval rating is about 3-5 percent at best. An analysis of reasons why it has occurred is not a goal of this article. Now it is just necessary to realize fully that Russian people distrust the opposition. This fact should be taken into consideration by grantors, especially by international NGOs, because their money probably will be frittered away or even plundered.

The second indicator of efficiency of an oppositional organization is its ability to be part of a coalition. In case if we see that oppositional organizations are estimated by tens, quantity of their members is in limits of statistical error, their numerous leaders have ambitions which are disproportionate to their real status - this is an ideal situation for any regime. Repeatedly confirmed inability of the current Russian opposition to unite and practically proved unavailability to co-ordinated actions just do not leave them chances at political struggle. All these inefficient organizations with theatrical and uncompromising leaders have to quit the stage without ceremony. Therefore proceeding of financial and political support of such oppositionists in Russia from the USA is a terrible mistake because of wasting the hundred thousands US dollars a year.

          

An authoritarian regime always aspires to separate and disorganize real oppositional organizations because it considers them to be a threat of state stability or political system functioning. To achieve these goals a regime usually uses wide spectrum of repeatedly checked up methods:

1. attainment by any way (including even illegal actions) of the control over heads of oppositional organizations and, thereby, their transformation into puppet structures;
2. establishment of organizations under control of a regime which shall be positioning themselves as an opposition to disorient protestingly adjusted people;
3. eradication of internal financing sources of really oppositional organizations and highest restriction of external sources;
4. illegal prosecution of oppositional activists by rotten law-enforcement agencies and corrupt judges, or, in some cases, beating of oppositionists by unidentified persons, often terminating in death;
5. non-admission of oppositional representatives to mass media affiliated with a regime or restriction of Internet at worst;
6. gerrymander and electoral legislation amendment in order to prevent oppositional organizations to be elected to elective bodies;
7. recruitment of activists and members of joint boards of oppositional organizations by state security agencies and law-enforcement bodies;
8. offering of decorative state posts to some persons from boards of oppositional organizations.

          

So, only a naive person who is unfamiliar with the structure of Russian political system can assume that real opposition will not face with similar forms of the regime’s counteraction. And only completely impudent leaders who decided to produce oppositional organizations by methods of cloning of already existing structures consisted of the same people who are always ready to disperse among state bodies of the regime which they ostensibly "struggled" against, can explain the absence of results of their activity by counteraction of authorities. And it is the third indicator on basis of which we can come to conclusion that the current Russian opposition is fully incapable.

          

Therefore it is only natural that U.S. officials usually pay not attention to Russian civil society and prefer to meet with its figures extremely seldom and formally. It is impossible to take any advantage of such meetings, of course. A sensible man will hardly count on those who are obviously doomed to lose. In comparison with them even the regime looks more effective and its high-ranking functionaries in the area of the political system control seem to be severe professionals. So the Obama-Biden Administration has to deal only with the Kremlin now. Probably this situation doesn’t suit some figures in the USA, but it’ll be proceeding until someone takes a strong-willed decision to clean up the Russian oppositional public policy area and build it anew with stainless figures essentially differing from eternal outsiders existing nowadays.

          

Meanwhile, the general situation in Russia looks extremely favorable for oppositional activity because of the financial crisis. In accordance with the first indicator of oppositional organizations efficiency (a level of their support among the people) it is possible to assert that potentially the people of Russia are ready to protest. But there is a paradoxical situation in Russia when all actors of a public policy are positioning themselves as opposition and at the same time the overwhelming majority of these structures are not the opposition really. Many experts are adhere to the point of view that the real opposition in Russia is not even exist. Practically, any Russian political organization can call itself as oppositional, moreover, it is ready to specify points of its political program which are differ from the regime’s ones. But this spontaneous activity is only the one of forms of PR, because the fundamental positions of self-proclaimed oppositionists are basically the same as the regime’s ones. Frankly speaking, everyone in Russia wants to seem to be oppositionist and very few people are real oppositionists. It is quite clear that the society has lost trust to the current Russian opposition even in case if it declares absolutely correct slogans which should be supported by the people. The phenomenon of the permenent opposition’s failure in conditions of constant social discontent growth is also covered in this distrust. It is not even a question of failures on elections because of falsifications or banning of oppositional candidates, but a fundamental failure of the current opposition which is not able to struggle falsifications and to win elections.

          

Russian opposition has problems with the cadre and even staffing policy. Oppositional leaders have appeared to be personally incapable to unite in a coalition or to participate in it productively. After the 2008 presidential elections the people of Russia were convinced that the existing opposition will never come to power in the country. It became clear that it is necessary to search for new effective forms of the people’s sovereignty realisation, not trusting it to crooks who only simulate care about them. So Gleb Pavlovsky, Adviser to the Head of Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, has truly expressed: «Lustration of the opposition should be provided by the opposition itself to take an opportunity and moral rights to discuss with authorities about the power». We suppose that’s correct. Self-proclaimed Russian oppositional organizations have not found time to explain people why did they decide that oppositionists had more rights to the power than the current Russian regime. They have not found time to explain people why only they should get financial support from international NGOs, instead of somebody else who has not yet proved lack of talent so repeatedly. Finally, they did not explaine people why they should vote for current oppositionists.

          

Now we should touch a topic of the current Russian opposition tactics. Many leaders of opposition adore street protest actions. However, when they start these actions in order to demonstrate something to the Russian people, these oppositionists cannot imagine how it looks like on the passersby’ side and on the regime’s side.

          

There is a primary question: what do oppositionists actually demonstrate? They shall probably give the following answers: “We demonstrate our protest against the regime!” or “We demand resignation of Putin!” etc. It seems to them that they do it exactly, but there are citizens also live in the country - people to whom oppositionists try to demonstrate themselves. Why oppositionists do not care about an impression made upon people by their protest actions?

          

Firstly, who are these oppositionists? Who are these young children or elderly people to be taken seriously by the regime? How many of them gather on streets? Furthermore, oppositionists also aspire to gather not on a narrow plaza, but on a huge square so that they present a sorry spectacle. Don’t they understand that when they go on the street their handful may demonstrate only their weakness? Don’t they realize that they arouse no enthusiasm among passersby and nobody wants to join demonstrators? Nazbols (supporters of Eduard Limonov) at least assume an air of rowdies in order to look not so pitifully, but the result is all the same: the demonstration of weakness is the demonstration of weakness.

          

It is common knowledge that people prefer to join to those who are strong. A big crowd in the folk psychology is a symbol of righteousness of any cause (“Everybody cannot be wrong!”). People are not inclined to join those who are weak and scanty, because their small number in folk’s eyes is a consequence of wrongfulness (“If nobody wishes to join these people, why should I do it even in spite of their truthfulness?”).

          

Just imagine a small room packed by one hundred persons and then you’ll admire: “The room is so crowded that there is hardly breathing space!” And imagine the same hundred persons went on the Triumphalnaya Square in Moscow near the subway station "Mayakovskaya"! There are ten times as many people go into the street from the station every minute and everyone goes past indifferently. Here one may shout in the top of voice, wave flags, climb the monument to the Soviet poet Vladimir Mayakovsky and fight with OMON personnel, but the result shall be nothing but sorry sight.

          

The conclusion is elementary – responsible oppositional leaders have no right to show small number of their organizations because it strikes monstrous blow to their reputation. For example, until Russian Bolsheviks became able to make several thousand protesting workers go out on streets, they gathered only in narrow premises. When thirty revolutionaries decided to come on gatherings nobody knew if there were all members of the party or only one of its cells? But the current Russian opposition which consists of several tens of persons obstinately demands for its meetings the most spacious square or the main street in the centre of Moscow. How one can understand it? Is this a sign of political wisdom or experience?

          

How do these meetings look on the regime’s side? It is necessary to consider, that the power has militarized units for struggle against disorders – OMON (Special Purpose Police Unit) and Interior Troops of MVD (Interior Ministry). However it is necessary to train OMON members not only to individual fight, but also to operative actions like fast redeployment across Moscow and capture of key places.

          

If such maneuvers would be carried out for no particular reason and people see in the city of Moscow hundreds of training fighters, people may think, that the current regime is afraid of them because it prepares forces against them. It would not be good for the power.

          

Also it is necessary for the regime to prepare each member of OMON so that every fighter will not scruple to beat women, old men and, as a matter of fact, everyone who will fall into his hand. But how the regime could carry out such maneuvers? It couldn’t just order to attack passersby on streets. Judges also should be prepared to commit crimes in the form of misjudgment. How the regime could ensure it?

          

Russian current oppositionists lend a helping hand. They gave a cause for the regime to train OMON personnel and judges in beatings and arrests, respectively, on the threshold of the spontaneous disorders expected in future because of the financial crisis. Apparently the current opposition and the regime are both happy with this option! Otherwise it is impossible to explain, why the current opposition obstinately aspires to organize its meetings on Triumphalnaya Square or Tverskaya Street, but Moscow authorities refuse permission to do it as obstinately as the opposition! Is it really dangerous for the political system to allow the opposition to organize a poor excuse for impressive protest and disgrace itself? If it is so, that system is not worth a dime. Furthermore, removal of the ban against meetings of oppositionists could give the chance to authorities to declare that now the Russian Federation is really democratic country. As for oppositionists, why do they reject offers of other places for meetings? It is always possible to choose a narrow place close enough to busy streets where one hundred persons would be an impressive sight! In this case a protest action may be noticed by passersby. But the opposition in Russia does not want to do it. There are two possible variants - either opposition leaders do not understand elementary things, or it’s more important for them to gather impressive images of their activists severely dispersed by OMON members flied into a rage, so it would make possible to justify sponsor’s trust and conceal an embezzlement of allocated funds. Anyhow, the purchase of apartment in New York for $ 3,400,000 by one of leaders of the current Russian opposition looks exactly like embezzlement. How shall Russian “professional grantees” explain purchases of new expensive cars and apartments in Moscow taking into account that Moscow is among the top ten of the most expensive cities in the world?  

          

Isn’t it logical that in folk’s opinion Vladimir Putin is ten times more likely to be in power than any current oppositional leader? As a matter of fact, why did they decide that they deserve the power more than Putin or Medvedev?

          

So, the essence of the matter is clear - the current opposition should become a thing of the past. But who will come instead of it?

          

We’ll see.